Global trade is on track to break new records, with total goods and services exchanges expected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The milestone comes even as overall trade momentum softens amid a challenging economic backdrop.
In its year-end Global Trade Update, UNCTAD projects that world trade volumes will grow by approximately 7% this year, adding around $2.2 trillion to last year’s totals, a level not seen before. This expansion occurs against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven demand across regions, which have collectively dampened growth.
Regional Drivers and Shifting Patterns
East Asia continued to lead export growth, while Africa and South-South trade corridors posted robust gains, underscoring the growing role of emerging markets in sustaining global commerce. Manufacturing, particularly electronics, remained a key engine of growth, even as traditional sectors such as energy and automotive lagged behind.
The surge in trade value this year is being driven more by increased volumes rather than higher prices, reflecting stable global demand despite broader uncertainties. UNCTAD’s data indicate that services and goods trade both expanded through the third quarter of 2025, though growth rates slowed compared with earlier in the year.
Risks and Outlook for 2026
While the record figure highlights the resilience of global commerce, the agency warns the outlook is clouded by ongoing economic pressures. Factors such as geopolitical fragmentation, nearshoring trends and uneven recovery in developed markets could slow growth next year. In particular, rising trade costs and persistent volatility may weaken momentum heading into 2026.
UNCTAD’s update paints a nuanced picture: while global trade continues to expand and reach unprecedented levels, the forces shaping that growth are shifting, favoring regional trade dynamics and highlighting the importance of policy stability to sustain future gains.
